Fire blight update

CAUTION: The observations, conditions, and recommendations reported for Winchester, VA are provided as a guide to fire blight risk assessment only for the immediate area of the Virginia Tech AREC located six miles southwest of Winchester. Use of the information reported here for making orchard management decisions outside of that area is not our intent. Fruit producers outside of that area are encouraged to consult their state extension specialists for information similar to that provided here.

(Click on image to enlarge)

FIRE BLIGHT: Above is a cropped graphic from the Maryblyt 7 program. Some cultivars still have some susceptible late bloom. Here is a prediction for trees with lingering bloom. (A month ago, who would have thought that we would see any bloom at Shenandoah Apple Blossom Festival time next weekend?). The temperature and wetting data were current through yesterday afternoon, Apr 27. Predicted weather conditions are shown for Apr 28-May 5. The components of fire blight risk are indicated in the columns labeled B (blossoms open), H (degree hours for epiphytic bacterial populations), W (wetting by rain or dew), and T (average daily temperature 60 F or above). The risk column shows that fire blight infection could have occurred with wetting by dew Apr 20, and with any wetting of late bloom by rain, a spray application, or heavy dew Apr 15-17. After a ten-day decline, risk could again increase to an infective level with wetting May 2-5. In high-risk situations, a protective streptomycin application is recommended ahead of predicted infection and with any spray applications of other materials. Be aware that risks can abruptly increase with unpredicted warmer temperatures and wetting. The BBS and CBS columns are tracking predicted blossom blight symptom (from infection Apr 20) and canker blight symptom appearance, respectively. Those symptoms should begin to appear about May 6. The numbers represent percent of required degree hours for symptom appearance. The weather conditions used in the predictive part of this graphic come from the Weather Channel for Winchester, supplemented by site-specific data from SkyBit Inc.

Disease update

It has been mostly wet since Saturday afternoon, Apr 21, with soaking rainfall totaling 0.9 in. Wetting Saturday likely resulted in quince rust infection of unprotected susceptible blossoms and cedar-rust infection of foliage and some fruit; fruitlets which have reached thinning size should be relatively resistant to quince and cedar rust rust infection. Wind direction during the early wetting was mostly from the west and northwest, a warning regarding the cedar tree inoculum source for rust-prone orchards. The current 24+-hr wetting period favors secondary scab.

Secondary powdery mildew lesions were common by Apr 20, evidence of our most active early season disease this year.

The fire blight outlook remains similar to that posted below, but with risk Apr 23-29 now showing as only light or moderate. However there is still susceptible bloom on many cultivars, especially in lower areas where there was frost damage, and there will probably still be some late bloom when temperatures are again warm enough to expect some risk from fire blight (Stay tuned!).

Fire blight update

CAUTION: The observations, conditions, and recommendations reported for Winchester, VA are provided as a guide to fire blight risk assessment only for the immediate area of the Virginia Tech AREC located six miles southwest of Winchester. Use of the information reported here for making orchard management decisions outside of that area is not our intent. Fruit producers outside of that area are encouraged to consult their state extension specialists for information similar to that provided here.

(Click picture to enlarge)

FIRE BLIGHT: Above is a cropped graphic from the Maryblyt 7 program. Many cultivars still have some susceptible bloom. Here is a prediction for trees with first bloom open Monday, March 23, 2012. The temperature and wetting data are current through this morning, Apr 20. Predicted weather conditions are shown for Apr 20-29. The components of fire blight risk are indicated in the columns labeled B (blossoms open), H (degree hours for epiphytic bacterial populations), W (wetting by rain or dew), and T (average daily temperature 60 F or above). The risk column shows that fire blight infection could have occurred with any wetting from rain, a spray application, or heavy dew Apr 15-17. After a two-day decline, risk has again increased to an infective level today. After tomorrow, predicted cooler temperatures Apr 22-27 should suppress risk to low to moderate levels. In high-risk situations, a protective streptomycin application is recommended ahead of predicted infection and with any spray applications of other materials. Be aware that risks can abruptly increase with unpredicted warmer temperatures and wetting.  This graphic will be updated Apr 23. The weather conditions used in the predictive part of this graphic come from the Weather Channel for Winchester, supplemented by site-specific data from SkyBit Inc.

Scab infection period

An apple scab infection period occurred Apr 18-19 with 28-hr wetting at 47-50°F and 0.52 inches of rain. This length of wetting, coupled with the possibility of secondary infection from lesions that resulted from inadeqate protection Mar 24-25 could raise serious secondatry fruit infection issues in the coming month.

Temperatures are slightly lower than those presented in yesterday's Maryblyt graphic but still present a fire blight blossom infection threat for today.

Fire blight and apple scab forecast

CAUTION: The observations, conditions, and recommendations reported for Winchester, VA are provided as a guide to fire blight risk assessment only for the immediate area of the Virginia Tech AREC located six miles southwest of Winchester. Use of the information reported here for making orchard management decisions outside of that area is not our intent. Fruit producers outside of that area are encouraged to consult their state extension specialists for information similar to that provided here.

(Click picture to enlarge)


FIRE BLIGHT: Above is a cropped graphic from the Maryblyt 7 program. Many cultivars still have much susceptible bloom. Here is a prediction for trees with first bloom open Monday, March 23, 2012. The temperature and rainfall data are current through this morning, Apr 18. Predicted weather conditions are shown for Apr 18-22. The components of fire blight risk are indicated in the columns labeled B (blossoms open), H (degree hours for epiphytic bacterial populations), W (wetting by rain or dew), and T (average daily temperature 60 F or above). The risk column shows that fire blight infection could have occurred with any wetting from rain, a spray application, or heavy dew Apr 15-17. After one-day breaks today and Apr 20, risk will again return to an infective level tomorrow, Apr 21-22. In high-risk situations, a protective streptomycin application is recommended ahead of predicted infection and with any spray applications of other materials. Be aware that risks can abruptly increase with unpredicted warmer temperatures and wetting. This graphic will be updated Apr 20. The weather conditions used in the predictive part of this graphic come from the Weather Channel for Winchester, supplemented by site-specific data from SkyBit Inc.

Also, today's wetting could result in a secondary apple scab infection period if it remains wet into tonight.

Fire blight update

CAUTION: The observations, conditions, and recommendations reported for Winchester, VA are provided as a guide to fire blight risk assessment only for the immediate area of the Virginia Tech AREC located six miles southwest of Winchester. Use of the information reported here for making orchard management decisions outside of that area is not our intent. Fruit producers outside of that area are encouraged to consult their state extension specialists for information similar to that provided here.

(Click to enlarge)

FIRE BLIGHT: Above is a cropped graphic from the Maryblyt 7 program. Many cultivars still have much susceptible bloom. Here is a prediction for trees with first bloom open Monday, March 23, 2012. The temperature and rainfall data are current through Apr 16. Predicted weather conditions are shown for Apr 17-21. The components of fire blight risk are indicated in the columns labeled B (blossoms open), H (degree hours for epiphytic bacterial populations), W (wetting by rain or dew), and T (average daily temperature 60 F or above). The risk column shows that fire blight infection could have occurred with brief showers Apr 14-15 and could again be triggered Apr 17 by wetting from rain, a spray application, or heavy dew. After cooler temperatures Apr 18, infection conditions could again exist Apr 19. In high-risk situations, a protective streptomycin application is recommended ahead of predicted infection and with any spray applications of other materials. Be aware that risks could increase with unpredicted warmer weather and wetting. This graphic will be updated Apr 18. The weather conditions used in the predictive part of this graphic come from the Weather Channel for Winchester, supplemented by site-specific data from SkyBit Inc.

Fire blight update for today and tomorrow

The Maryblyt graphic will be updated later today, but conditions remain essentially as predicted for today and tomorrow: blossom infection could result with wetting from rain, a spray application, or heavy dew, triggering infection Apr 15-17. In high-risk situations, a protective streptomycin application is recommended ahead of predicted infection and with any spray applications of other materials.

Scab and fire blight update

Scab lesions were observed today on unprotected trees at our AREC. This means there is a potential for secondary infection with the next significant wetting period.
CAUTION: The observations, conditions, and recommendations reported for Winchester, VA are provided as a guide to fire blight risk assessment only for the immediate area of the Virginia Tech AREC located six miles southwest of Winchester. Use of the information reported here for making orchard management decisions outside of that area is not our intent. Fruit producers outside of that area are encouraged to consult their state extension specialists for information similar to that provided here.




(Click to enlarge image)


FIRE BLIGHT: Above is a cropped graphic from the Maryblyt 7 program. Although some cultivars have reach petal fall of early bloom, many still have much susceptible bloom and a prolonged bloom period is expected. Here is a prediction for trees with first bloom open Monday, March 23, 2012. The temperature and rainfall data are current through this morning, Apr 13. Predicted weather conditions are shown for Apr 13-19. The components of fire blight risk are indicated in the columns labeled B (blossoms open), H (degree hours for epiphytic bacterial populations), W (wetting by rain or dew), and T (average daily temperature 60 F or above). After going through 11 days of light to moderate blossom blight risk, the risk column shows that risk of fire blight infection will increase with warmer temperatures through this weekend and into next week. For infection to be predicted, wetting must occur after the EIP (epiphytic infection potential) reaches 100 or higher and there must be wetting. Wetting from rain, a spray application, or heavy dew would trigger infection Apr 15-16, and infection conditions are predicted with wetting for Apr 17 and 19. In high-risk situations, a protective streptomycin application is recommended ahead of predicted infection and with any spray applications of other materials. This graphic will be updated Apr 16. The weather conditions used in the predictive part of this graphic come from the Weather Channel for Winchester, supplemented by site-specific data from SkyBit Inc.

Fire blight on the horizon

CAUTION: The observations, conditions, and recommendations reported for Winchester, VA are provided as a guide to fire blight risk assessment only for the immediate area of the Virginia Tech AREC located six miles southwest of Winchester. Use of the information reported here for making orchard management decisions outside of that area is not our intent. Fruit producers outside of that area are encouraged to consult their state extension specialists for information similar to that provided here.

(Click to enlarge image)

FIRE BLIGHT: Above is a cropped graphic from the Maryblyt 7 program. Although some cultivars have reach petal fall of early bloom, many still have much susceptible bloom and a prolonged bloom period is expected. Here is a prediction for trees with first bloom open Monday, March 23, 2012. The temperature and rainfall data are current through Apr 11. Predicted weather conditions are shown for Apr 12-19. The components of fire blight risk are indicated in the columns labeled B (blossoms open), H (degree hours for epiphytic bacterial populations), W (wetting by rain or dew), and T (average daily temperature 60 F or above). After going through 11 days of light to moderate blossom blight risk, the risk column shows that risk of fire blight infection will again increase with warmer temperatures through this weekend and into next week. For infection to be predicted, wetting must occur after the EIP (epiphytic infection potential) reaches 100 or higher and there must be wetting.Only wetting is lacking for Apr 15-16 and infection conditions are predicted for Apr 17. In high-risk situations, a protective streptomycin application is recommended ahead of predicted infection. This graphic will be updated Apr 13. The weather conditions used in the predictive part of this graphic come from the Weather Channel for Winchester, supplemented by site-specific data from SkyBit Inc.

Fire blight risk remains low-moderate

Fire blight risk has been low the past four days and should remain low to moderate with cool predicted temperatures through Friday. But risk should return to high with warmer weather predicted for this coming weekend. The fire blight outlook will be updated Apr 11. Expect a rather long bloom period this year, and later susceptibility.

Fire blight outlook for this week

CAUTION: The observations, conditions, and recommendations reported for Winchester, VA are provided as a guide to fire blight risk assessment only for the immediate area of the Virginia Tech AREC located six miles southwest of Winchester. Use of the information reported here for making orchard management decisions outside of that area is not our intent. Fruit producers outside of that area are encouraged to consult their state extension specialists for information similar to that provided here.

FIRE BLIGHT: Above is a cropped graphic from the Maryblyt 7 program. With many cultivars with bloom open, and more bloom opening gradually over the next several days, here is a prediction for trees with first bloom open Monday, March 23, 2012. The temperature and rainfall data are current through Monday morning, Apr 2. Predicted weather conditions are shown for Apr 2-5. The components of fire blight risk are indicated in the columns labeled B (blossoms open), H (degree hours for epiphytic bacterial populations), W (wetting by rain or dew), and T (average daily temperature 60 F or above). Based on predicted temperatures and wetting, the risk column shows that risk of fire blight infection will be mostly low or moderate through Apr 5, and actually for several days beyond that. (It appears that we will be having a prolonged bloom period). For infection to be predicted, wetting must occur after the EIP (epiphytic infection potential) reaches 100 or higher. Note there had been an earlier threat of fire blight on apples at our AREC last weekend, but temperatures fell about 3 degrees cooler than would have been required, based on bloom first open Mar 23. For pears which had been in bloom earlier in the week, or apples in areas with bloom open Mar 22, infection would have been possible with wetting Mar 24. In high-risk situations, a protective streptomycin application is recommended ahead of predicted infection. This graphic will be updated later in the week. The weather conditions used in the predictive part of this graphic come from the Weather Channel for Winchester, supplemented by site-specific data from SkyBit Inc.