NOTE: This year for fire blight risk assessment, I will post a graphic from the Cougarblight model as shown on our NEWA site. I will be using the same weather data from our NEWA station to make a comparison to Maryblyt 7 as in previous years, but not posting the MaryBlyt graphic. We thank Dr. Mizuho Nita for hosting the Maryblyt 7.1 download site at: http://grapepathology.org/maryblyt
CAUTION: The observations, conditions, and recommendations reported for Winchester, VA are provided as a guide to fire blight risk assessment only for the immediate area of the Virginia Tech AREC located six miles southwest of Winchester. Use of the information reported here for making orchard management decisions outside of that area is not our intent. Fruit producers outside of that area are encouraged to consult their state extension specialists for information similar to that provided here.
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| Graphic from Cougarblight, April 6, 2020. Click to enlarge. |
FIRE BLIGHT: Above is the graphic from the Cougarblight model as shown on our NEWA site. We selected orchard blight history option as “Fire blight occurred in your neighborhood last year” and first blossom open date as 3/30/20. Cougarblight shows color-coded risk assessment as “Cougarblight 4-Day DH” risk is low or caution for this week Apr 7-11. The Roanoke area and areas east of the Blue Ridge south of Charlottesville have a potential for infection Apr 7-9 (graphics not shown). Setting the first bloom date to 3/25/20 instead of 3/30/20 did not make any difference in prediction of infection for this week. However, Roanoke and areas south of Charlottesville could have had earlier infection (March 27-31) if the first bloom date had been as early as March 20.
Be aware that risk can change quickly with unpredicted warmer temperatures and wetting. In high-risk situations, a protective streptomycin application is recommended ahead of predicted infection, which occurs with wetting. The fire blight outlook will be updated Apr 13.
