FIRE BLIGHT: Above is an updated graphic from the Maryblyt 7 program. Based on predicted temperatures and wetting, the risk column shows that fire blight infection risk on Apr 29 is high with wetting but infection is not predicted, even with wetting, because the EIP (epiphytic infection potential) is now well below 100. With most cultivars near full bloom and later cultivars with early bloom open, this is a prediction for trees with first bloom open April 16, 2013. The temperature and rainfall data are current through Friday morning, Apr 26. Predicted weather conditions are shown for Apr 26-30. The components of fire blight risk are indicated in the columns labeled B (blossoms open), H (degree hours for epiphytic bacterial populations), W (wetting by rain or dew), and T (average daily temperature 60 F or above). Based on predicted temperatures and wetting, the risk column shows that fire blight infection risk on Apr 29 is high but infection is not predicted, even with wetting, because the EIP (epiphytic infection potential) remains well below 100. For infection to be predicted, wetting must occur after the EIP reaches 100 or higher. Cooler predicted temperatures result in continued low EIP and reduced risk through May 3 (not shown). The CBS column at the right in the graphic indicates progression toward the appearance of canker blight symptoms on new growth, due to extension of overwintering cankers from last year, 86% of the degree hour requirement by May 3. Canker advancement cannot be prevented by chemical treatment at this time and the presence of symptoms will indicate a build-up of inoculum which could become a factor in the event of a trauma blight situation due to hail injury, etc.
CAUTION: Be aware that risk can change quickly with unpredicted warmer temperatures and wetting. In high-risk situations, a protective streptomycin application is recommended ahead of predicted infection. This graphic will be updated April 29. The weather conditions used in the predictive part of this graphic come from the Weather Channel for Winchester, supplemented by site-specific data from SkyBit Inc.
