Extended wetting and summer diseases

Extended wetting occurred June 18-19 with 15 hours wet at 64° and 0.11 in. rain. With this and other wetting in the past week, the accumulated wetting hour total from rainfall or dew since Apr 18 is now at 413 hours. 

Sooty blotch was first observed in non-treated trees at our AREC June 13, indicative of this year's early summer disease pressure.

Extended wetting and validation of the sooty blotch flyspeck wetting hour threshold

Extended wetting June 11-13 involved two combined wetting periods of 14 hours at 69° and 12 hours at 66° with a total of 1.4 in. rain. These wetting periods favored secondary scab and all summer diseases on apples and brown rot on ripening stone fruits. Accumulated wetting hour total from rainfall or dew since Apr 18 is now at 367 hours. 


Because of early bloom and petal fall this year, there had been some questions about using the Apr 8 petal fall date as the trigger for accumulating wetting hours, starting 10 days later. The 250 accumulated wetting hour threshold is used to predict the presence of sooty blotch/flyspeck (SBFS) fungi on unprotected fruit. Using the Apr 18 date we had passed the 250-wetting hour threshold by May 25, four weeks ahead of last year and the second earliest date for reaching this predictive threshold on record since 1994. We are now seeing SBFS on fruit samples collected at our AREC three weeks ago and incubated under high humidity since then. This indicates that fungi were present May 25 and confirms the validity of the Apr 8 petal fall date and Apr 18 as the accumulation date in spite of this year's early bloom and petal fall dates.

Extended wetting June 1-2 and accumulated wetting

Extended wetting June 1-2: 12 hours at 63-51° brought the accumulated wetting hour total since Apr 18 to 319 hours. This is still a month ahead of last year's total. 

Extended wetting periods May 27-30 and accumulated wetting hours

We had extended wetting May 27-28: 11 hours with 65° and 0.33 in. rain. Last night's extended wetting, May 29-30, was 10 hours at 71° and 0.12 in. rain. These wetting periods favored secondary scab and all summer diseases on apples and brown rot on ripening cherries and other stone fruits.


On May 25 we passed the 250-wetting hour threshold for specific treatment against the sooty blotch/flyspeck fungal complex. Accumulated wetting hour total from rainfall or dew since Apr 18 is now at 285 hours. This is four weeks ahead of last year and the second earliest week for reaching this predictive threshold since we began recording this in 1994. In seven of these 19 years we reached this threshold one week later.

Extended wetting May 24-25

Last night's extended wetting came to 15 hours with 60-70° temperatures and 0.06 in. rain. This wetting favored scab and all summer diseases on apples and brown rot on ripening cherries and other stone fruits.

Infection period May 23-24

Last night's wetting (12 hr at 63° with 0.04 in. rain) qualified as a scab infection period. 

This wetting brought the accumulated wetting hours since Apr 18 to 234 hours. In the next couple days it is likely that we will reach the 250 wetting hour threshold for specific treatment against the sooty blotch/flyspeck fungal complex. This would be the second earliest week for reaching this predictive threshold since we began recording this in 1994. Only 2003 was earlier. This signals early summer disease pressure from the sooty blotch/flyspeck fungal complex as well as other "summer diseases" and Alternaria leaf blotch.

As expected, there are early indications of heavy brown rot pressure on ripening cherries.

Infection periods May 21-23

Scab infection periods occurred May 21-22 (22 hr at 67°) and May 22-23  (12 hr at 64°). Total rainfall for these two events was 0.26 in. at our AREC but some other areas of Frederick County received considerably more rain volume, especially on the evening of May 22. 

These wetting periods at relatively warm temperatures could signal early summer disease pressure. Through this morning we had accumulated 222 wetting hours since Apr 18, rapidly advancing toward the 250 wetting hour threshold for specific treatment against the sooty blotch/flyspeck fungal complex.

Cherry leaf spot symptoms were observed today.

Early season disease update; sooty blotch and flyspeck wetting hour accumulation

A scab and cedar-apple rust infection period occurred May 13-15 (26 hours wet at 61°, 0.4 in. rain). There was still cedar rust inoculum available for foliar infection but galls are now mostly depleted at our AREC. If you have a recurrent cedar-apple rust problem in your orchard, check the cedar galls in your area for remaining inoculum potential with wetting today.

Through May 20 there have been 38 days favorable for powdery mildew infection since spores were first available Mar 19. Secondary scab and mildew infection are heavy on non-treated trees.

Some shoot blight was reported last week, resulting from scattered hail in some areas of Frederick County May 2. These "trauma blight" symptoms appeared near the time predicted by Maryblyt for May 15. Numerous early reports of fire blight have come from areas east of the Blue Ridge and the Roanoke area south. These likely occurred as blossom infection where bloom was open earlier than in the Winchester area.

For purposes of predicting the development of the sooty blotch and flyspeck (SBFS) fungal complex, we record accumulated wetting hours, starting 10 days after petal fall. With the extended bloom period this year, the petal fall date was somewhat subjective, but we have settled on Apr 8 for petal fall. So the start of wetting hour accumulation will be from Apr 18, 20 days ahead of last year and 11 days ahead of 2010. Through this morning we have accumulated 189 wetting hours toward the 250 wetting hour threshold for specific treatment against the SBFS fungal complex.

Scab and rust infection periods May 5 & 8

Wetting periods favorable for scab and cedar-apple rust infection occurred May 5-6 (13 hours wet at 63°,< 0.01 in. rain) and May 8-9 (split wetting, 18 hours at 64°, 0.4 in. rain). There are still plenty of active rust galls giving off inoculum for foliar infection. Fruit are no longer susceptible to rust infection.

Through May 10 there have been 30 days favorable for powdery mildew infection since spores were first available Mar 19.

There was scattered hail in some areas of Frederick County May 2 and fire blight shoot symptoms related to trauma blight infection are predicted to appear May 15.

The above wetting periods were also favorable for scab infection on peaches and nectarines.

Disease update for the weekend

The recent fire blight scenario unfolded not too far off of that shown in the graphic below for Apr 28. Briefly put, based on recorded and predicted temperatures, any day with wetting from May 1 through May 11 is a potential fire blight infection day where flowers persist. There is still susceptible bloom on Romes, York and Nittany, and some other varieties such as Golden Delicious and Gala, some of which may have been initiated in response to frost injury March 27. Some of these days will have wetting from rain or dew; others will have wetting from thinning or maintenance sprays. On May 2 there was scattered hail that may have caused a trauma blight situation in some areas of Frederick County

Powdery mildew pressure remains high this season, with 26 days favorable for infection through Apr 30. With recent warmer temperatures and more rapid shoot growth, secondary infection is evident and foliage susceptibility very high. Shoots showing secondary infection are likely to have infected lateral buds that will become overwintering inoculum sources for next year's mildew epidemic.

Wetting periods at our AREC this week have been close for secondary scab but not quite long enough for cedar-apple rust infection of foliage. Fruit at thinning size are no longer susceptible to cedar or quince rust infection. There is still a lot of inoculum present on cedar rust gall spore horns.

Fire blight update

CAUTION: The observations, conditions, and recommendations reported for Winchester, VA are provided as a guide to fire blight risk assessment only for the immediate area of the Virginia Tech AREC located six miles southwest of Winchester. Use of the information reported here for making orchard management decisions outside of that area is not our intent. Fruit producers outside of that area are encouraged to consult their state extension specialists for information similar to that provided here.

(Click on image to enlarge)

FIRE BLIGHT: Above is a cropped graphic from the Maryblyt 7 program. Some cultivars still have some susceptible late bloom. Here is a prediction for trees with lingering bloom. (A month ago, who would have thought that we would see any bloom at Shenandoah Apple Blossom Festival time next weekend?). The temperature and wetting data were current through yesterday afternoon, Apr 27. Predicted weather conditions are shown for Apr 28-May 5. The components of fire blight risk are indicated in the columns labeled B (blossoms open), H (degree hours for epiphytic bacterial populations), W (wetting by rain or dew), and T (average daily temperature 60 F or above). The risk column shows that fire blight infection could have occurred with wetting by dew Apr 20, and with any wetting of late bloom by rain, a spray application, or heavy dew Apr 15-17. After a ten-day decline, risk could again increase to an infective level with wetting May 2-5. In high-risk situations, a protective streptomycin application is recommended ahead of predicted infection and with any spray applications of other materials. Be aware that risks can abruptly increase with unpredicted warmer temperatures and wetting. The BBS and CBS columns are tracking predicted blossom blight symptom (from infection Apr 20) and canker blight symptom appearance, respectively. Those symptoms should begin to appear about May 6. The numbers represent percent of required degree hours for symptom appearance. The weather conditions used in the predictive part of this graphic come from the Weather Channel for Winchester, supplemented by site-specific data from SkyBit Inc.

Disease update

It has been mostly wet since Saturday afternoon, Apr 21, with soaking rainfall totaling 0.9 in. Wetting Saturday likely resulted in quince rust infection of unprotected susceptible blossoms and cedar-rust infection of foliage and some fruit; fruitlets which have reached thinning size should be relatively resistant to quince and cedar rust rust infection. Wind direction during the early wetting was mostly from the west and northwest, a warning regarding the cedar tree inoculum source for rust-prone orchards. The current 24+-hr wetting period favors secondary scab.

Secondary powdery mildew lesions were common by Apr 20, evidence of our most active early season disease this year.

The fire blight outlook remains similar to that posted below, but with risk Apr 23-29 now showing as only light or moderate. However there is still susceptible bloom on many cultivars, especially in lower areas where there was frost damage, and there will probably still be some late bloom when temperatures are again warm enough to expect some risk from fire blight (Stay tuned!).

Fire blight update

CAUTION: The observations, conditions, and recommendations reported for Winchester, VA are provided as a guide to fire blight risk assessment only for the immediate area of the Virginia Tech AREC located six miles southwest of Winchester. Use of the information reported here for making orchard management decisions outside of that area is not our intent. Fruit producers outside of that area are encouraged to consult their state extension specialists for information similar to that provided here.

(Click picture to enlarge)

FIRE BLIGHT: Above is a cropped graphic from the Maryblyt 7 program. Many cultivars still have some susceptible bloom. Here is a prediction for trees with first bloom open Monday, March 23, 2012. The temperature and wetting data are current through this morning, Apr 20. Predicted weather conditions are shown for Apr 20-29. The components of fire blight risk are indicated in the columns labeled B (blossoms open), H (degree hours for epiphytic bacterial populations), W (wetting by rain or dew), and T (average daily temperature 60 F or above). The risk column shows that fire blight infection could have occurred with any wetting from rain, a spray application, or heavy dew Apr 15-17. After a two-day decline, risk has again increased to an infective level today. After tomorrow, predicted cooler temperatures Apr 22-27 should suppress risk to low to moderate levels. In high-risk situations, a protective streptomycin application is recommended ahead of predicted infection and with any spray applications of other materials. Be aware that risks can abruptly increase with unpredicted warmer temperatures and wetting.  This graphic will be updated Apr 23. The weather conditions used in the predictive part of this graphic come from the Weather Channel for Winchester, supplemented by site-specific data from SkyBit Inc.

Scab infection period

An apple scab infection period occurred Apr 18-19 with 28-hr wetting at 47-50°F and 0.52 inches of rain. This length of wetting, coupled with the possibility of secondary infection from lesions that resulted from inadeqate protection Mar 24-25 could raise serious secondatry fruit infection issues in the coming month.

Temperatures are slightly lower than those presented in yesterday's Maryblyt graphic but still present a fire blight blossom infection threat for today.

Fire blight and apple scab forecast

CAUTION: The observations, conditions, and recommendations reported for Winchester, VA are provided as a guide to fire blight risk assessment only for the immediate area of the Virginia Tech AREC located six miles southwest of Winchester. Use of the information reported here for making orchard management decisions outside of that area is not our intent. Fruit producers outside of that area are encouraged to consult their state extension specialists for information similar to that provided here.

(Click picture to enlarge)


FIRE BLIGHT: Above is a cropped graphic from the Maryblyt 7 program. Many cultivars still have much susceptible bloom. Here is a prediction for trees with first bloom open Monday, March 23, 2012. The temperature and rainfall data are current through this morning, Apr 18. Predicted weather conditions are shown for Apr 18-22. The components of fire blight risk are indicated in the columns labeled B (blossoms open), H (degree hours for epiphytic bacterial populations), W (wetting by rain or dew), and T (average daily temperature 60 F or above). The risk column shows that fire blight infection could have occurred with any wetting from rain, a spray application, or heavy dew Apr 15-17. After one-day breaks today and Apr 20, risk will again return to an infective level tomorrow, Apr 21-22. In high-risk situations, a protective streptomycin application is recommended ahead of predicted infection and with any spray applications of other materials. Be aware that risks can abruptly increase with unpredicted warmer temperatures and wetting. This graphic will be updated Apr 20. The weather conditions used in the predictive part of this graphic come from the Weather Channel for Winchester, supplemented by site-specific data from SkyBit Inc.

Also, today's wetting could result in a secondary apple scab infection period if it remains wet into tonight.

Fire blight update

CAUTION: The observations, conditions, and recommendations reported for Winchester, VA are provided as a guide to fire blight risk assessment only for the immediate area of the Virginia Tech AREC located six miles southwest of Winchester. Use of the information reported here for making orchard management decisions outside of that area is not our intent. Fruit producers outside of that area are encouraged to consult their state extension specialists for information similar to that provided here.

(Click to enlarge)

FIRE BLIGHT: Above is a cropped graphic from the Maryblyt 7 program. Many cultivars still have much susceptible bloom. Here is a prediction for trees with first bloom open Monday, March 23, 2012. The temperature and rainfall data are current through Apr 16. Predicted weather conditions are shown for Apr 17-21. The components of fire blight risk are indicated in the columns labeled B (blossoms open), H (degree hours for epiphytic bacterial populations), W (wetting by rain or dew), and T (average daily temperature 60 F or above). The risk column shows that fire blight infection could have occurred with brief showers Apr 14-15 and could again be triggered Apr 17 by wetting from rain, a spray application, or heavy dew. After cooler temperatures Apr 18, infection conditions could again exist Apr 19. In high-risk situations, a protective streptomycin application is recommended ahead of predicted infection and with any spray applications of other materials. Be aware that risks could increase with unpredicted warmer weather and wetting. This graphic will be updated Apr 18. The weather conditions used in the predictive part of this graphic come from the Weather Channel for Winchester, supplemented by site-specific data from SkyBit Inc.

Fire blight update for today and tomorrow

The Maryblyt graphic will be updated later today, but conditions remain essentially as predicted for today and tomorrow: blossom infection could result with wetting from rain, a spray application, or heavy dew, triggering infection Apr 15-17. In high-risk situations, a protective streptomycin application is recommended ahead of predicted infection and with any spray applications of other materials.

Scab and fire blight update

Scab lesions were observed today on unprotected trees at our AREC. This means there is a potential for secondary infection with the next significant wetting period.
CAUTION: The observations, conditions, and recommendations reported for Winchester, VA are provided as a guide to fire blight risk assessment only for the immediate area of the Virginia Tech AREC located six miles southwest of Winchester. Use of the information reported here for making orchard management decisions outside of that area is not our intent. Fruit producers outside of that area are encouraged to consult their state extension specialists for information similar to that provided here.




(Click to enlarge image)


FIRE BLIGHT: Above is a cropped graphic from the Maryblyt 7 program. Although some cultivars have reach petal fall of early bloom, many still have much susceptible bloom and a prolonged bloom period is expected. Here is a prediction for trees with first bloom open Monday, March 23, 2012. The temperature and rainfall data are current through this morning, Apr 13. Predicted weather conditions are shown for Apr 13-19. The components of fire blight risk are indicated in the columns labeled B (blossoms open), H (degree hours for epiphytic bacterial populations), W (wetting by rain or dew), and T (average daily temperature 60 F or above). After going through 11 days of light to moderate blossom blight risk, the risk column shows that risk of fire blight infection will increase with warmer temperatures through this weekend and into next week. For infection to be predicted, wetting must occur after the EIP (epiphytic infection potential) reaches 100 or higher and there must be wetting. Wetting from rain, a spray application, or heavy dew would trigger infection Apr 15-16, and infection conditions are predicted with wetting for Apr 17 and 19. In high-risk situations, a protective streptomycin application is recommended ahead of predicted infection and with any spray applications of other materials. This graphic will be updated Apr 16. The weather conditions used in the predictive part of this graphic come from the Weather Channel for Winchester, supplemented by site-specific data from SkyBit Inc.

Fire blight on the horizon

CAUTION: The observations, conditions, and recommendations reported for Winchester, VA are provided as a guide to fire blight risk assessment only for the immediate area of the Virginia Tech AREC located six miles southwest of Winchester. Use of the information reported here for making orchard management decisions outside of that area is not our intent. Fruit producers outside of that area are encouraged to consult their state extension specialists for information similar to that provided here.

(Click to enlarge image)

FIRE BLIGHT: Above is a cropped graphic from the Maryblyt 7 program. Although some cultivars have reach petal fall of early bloom, many still have much susceptible bloom and a prolonged bloom period is expected. Here is a prediction for trees with first bloom open Monday, March 23, 2012. The temperature and rainfall data are current through Apr 11. Predicted weather conditions are shown for Apr 12-19. The components of fire blight risk are indicated in the columns labeled B (blossoms open), H (degree hours for epiphytic bacterial populations), W (wetting by rain or dew), and T (average daily temperature 60 F or above). After going through 11 days of light to moderate blossom blight risk, the risk column shows that risk of fire blight infection will again increase with warmer temperatures through this weekend and into next week. For infection to be predicted, wetting must occur after the EIP (epiphytic infection potential) reaches 100 or higher and there must be wetting.Only wetting is lacking for Apr 15-16 and infection conditions are predicted for Apr 17. In high-risk situations, a protective streptomycin application is recommended ahead of predicted infection. This graphic will be updated Apr 13. The weather conditions used in the predictive part of this graphic come from the Weather Channel for Winchester, supplemented by site-specific data from SkyBit Inc.

Fire blight risk remains low-moderate

Fire blight risk has been low the past four days and should remain low to moderate with cool predicted temperatures through Friday. But risk should return to high with warmer weather predicted for this coming weekend. The fire blight outlook will be updated Apr 11. Expect a rather long bloom period this year, and later susceptibility.

Fire blight outlook for this week

CAUTION: The observations, conditions, and recommendations reported for Winchester, VA are provided as a guide to fire blight risk assessment only for the immediate area of the Virginia Tech AREC located six miles southwest of Winchester. Use of the information reported here for making orchard management decisions outside of that area is not our intent. Fruit producers outside of that area are encouraged to consult their state extension specialists for information similar to that provided here.

FIRE BLIGHT: Above is a cropped graphic from the Maryblyt 7 program. With many cultivars with bloom open, and more bloom opening gradually over the next several days, here is a prediction for trees with first bloom open Monday, March 23, 2012. The temperature and rainfall data are current through Monday morning, Apr 2. Predicted weather conditions are shown for Apr 2-5. The components of fire blight risk are indicated in the columns labeled B (blossoms open), H (degree hours for epiphytic bacterial populations), W (wetting by rain or dew), and T (average daily temperature 60 F or above). Based on predicted temperatures and wetting, the risk column shows that risk of fire blight infection will be mostly low or moderate through Apr 5, and actually for several days beyond that. (It appears that we will be having a prolonged bloom period). For infection to be predicted, wetting must occur after the EIP (epiphytic infection potential) reaches 100 or higher. Note there had been an earlier threat of fire blight on apples at our AREC last weekend, but temperatures fell about 3 degrees cooler than would have been required, based on bloom first open Mar 23. For pears which had been in bloom earlier in the week, or apples in areas with bloom open Mar 22, infection would have been possible with wetting Mar 24. In high-risk situations, a protective streptomycin application is recommended ahead of predicted infection. This graphic will be updated later in the week. The weather conditions used in the predictive part of this graphic come from the Weather Channel for Winchester, supplemented by site-specific data from SkyBit Inc.

Fire blight outlook

CAUTION: The observations, conditions, and recommendations reported for Winchester, VA are provided as a guide to fire blight risk assessment only for the immediate area of the Virginia Tech AREC located six miles southwest of Winchester. Use of the information reported here for making orchard management decisions outside of that area is not our intent. Fruit producers outside of that area are encouraged to consult their state extension specialists for information similar to that provided here.

FIRE BLIGHT: Above is a cropped graphic from the Maryblyt 7 program. With many cultivars with bloom open, others are at full pink, and more bloom opening gradually over the next several days, here is a prediction for trees with first bloom open Friday, March 23, 2012. The temperature and rainfall data are current through Friday morning, March 30. Predicted weather conditions are shown for March 31-April 3. The components of fire blight risk are indicated in the columns labeled B (blossoms open), H (degree hours for epiphytic bacterial populations), W (wetting by rain or dew), and T (average daily temperature 60 F or above). Based on predicted temperatures and wetting, the risk column shows that risk of fire blight infection will be mostly low or moderate through Apr 3, but higher if wetting occurs with showers Apr 1. For infection to be predicted, wetting must occur after the EIP (epiphytic infection potential) reaches 100 or higher. Note there had been an earlier threat of fire blight on apples at our AREC last weekend, but temperatures fell about 3 degrees cooler than would have been required, based on bloom first open Friday, March 23. For pears which had been in bloom earlier in the week, or apples in areas with bloom open Mar 22, infection would have been possible with wetting Saturday, Mar 24. In high-risk situations, a protective streptomycin application is recommended ahead of predicted infection.

This graphic will be updated April 2, or sooner if significant change warrants it. The weather conditions used in the predictive part of this graphic come from the Weather Channel for Winchester, supplemented by site-specific data from SkyBit Inc.